Jae Young Lee, Seoul National University
Ho Kim, Seoul National University
Antonio Gasparrini, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Ben Armstrong, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Michelle L. Bell, Yale University
Franceso Sera, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Eric Lavingne, Air Health Science Division, Health Canad
Rosana Abrutzky, Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani,
Shilu Tong, Anhui Medical University, Hefei
Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Anhui Medical University, Hefei
Paulo HIlario Nascimento Saldiva, University of São Paulo
Patricia Matus Correa, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile
Nicolas Valdes Ortega, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile
Haidong Kan, Fudan University
Samule Osorio Garcia, Hospital Vista Hermosa, Bogotá, Colombia
Jan Kysely, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague,
Ales Urban, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague,
Hans Orru, University of Tartu
Ene Indermitte, University of Tartu
Jouni J.K. Jaakkola, University of Oulu
Niilo R.I. Ryti, University of Oulu
Mathilde Pascal, Santé Publique France, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France
Patrick J. Goodman, Technological University DublinFollow
Ariana Zeka, Brunuel University
Paolo Michelozzi, Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome,
Matteo Scortichini, Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome,
Masahiro Hashizume, Nagasaki University,
Yasushi Honda, University of Tsukuba
Magali Hurtado, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
Julio Cruz, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
Xerxes Seposo, Kyoto University
Balthazar Nunes, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Lisboa, Portugal
Joao Paulo Teixeira, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Lisboa, Portugal
Aurelio Tobias, Spanish Council for Scientific Research
Carmen Iniguez, University of Valencia
Bertil Forsberg, Umeå Universi
Christofer Astrom, Umea University
Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Martina S. Ragettli, Seul National University
Yeu-Liang Leon Guo, Seoul National University
Bing-Yu Chen, Seoul National University
Antonella Zanobetti, Seoul National University
Joel Schwartz, Seoul National University
Tran Ngoc Dang, Seoul National University
Dung Do Van, Seoul National University
Fetemeh Mayvaneh, Seoul National University
Ala Overcenco, National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health of R. Moldova, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova
Shanshan Li, Monash University
Yuming Guo, Seoul National University

Document Type

Article

Rights

Available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial Share Alike 4.0 International Licence

Disciplines

1.3 PHYSICAL SCIENCES

Publication Details

Environment International

Abstract

An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (−0.92%p/°C) and Australia (−0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.105027

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