Yuming Guo, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
Antonio Gasparrini, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
Shanshan Li, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
Francesco Sera, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
Micheline De Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
Paulo Hilário Nascimento Nascimento Saldiva, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
Éric Lavigne, Health Canada, Ottawa, Canada
Benjawan Tawatsupa, Ministry of Public Heath, Department of Health, Bangkok, Thailand
Kornwipa Punnasiri, Thailand Ministry of Public Health, Department of Health, Nontaburi, Thailand
Ala Overcenco, Laboratory of Management in Public Health, Chisinau, Moldova
Patricia Matus Correa, Universidad de los Andes, Department of Public Health, Santiago, Chile
Nicolas Valdes Ortega, Universidad de los Andes, Department of Public Health, Santiago, Chile
Haidong Kan, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
Samuel Osorio, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Brazil
Jouni J.K. Jaakkola, Oulun Yliopisto, Oulu, Finland
Niilo R.I. Ryti, Oulun Yliopisto, Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, Oulu, Finland
Patrick J. Goodman, Technological University DublinFollow
Ariana Zeka, Brunel University London, Uxbridge, United Kingdom
Paola Michelozzi, ASL Rome E, Rome, Italy
Matteo Scortichini, Lazio Regional Health Service, Department of Epidemiology, Rome, Italy
Masahiro Hashizume, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
Honda, Yasushi Honda, Yasushi, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
Xerxes T. Seposo, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
Ho Young Kim, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
Aurelio Tobías, CSIC - Instituto de Diagnostico Ambiental y Estudios del Agua (IDAEA), Barcelona, Spain
Carmen Iñiguez Fernández, Spanish Consortium for Research on Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
Bertil Forsberg, Norrlands Universitetssjukhus, Umea, Sweden
Daniel Oudin Åström, Lunds Universitet, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund, Sweden
Guo, Yue Leon Guo, Yue Leon, National Health Research Institutes Taiwan, Zhunan, Taiwan
Bing Yu Chen, National Health Research Institutes Taiwan, Zhunan, Taiwan
Antonella Zanobetti, Harvard School of Public Health, Department of Environmental Health, Boston, United States
Joel D. Schwartz, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, United States
Tranngoc Ngoc Dang, University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
Dung Do Van, University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Faculty of Public Health, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
Michelle L. Bell, Yale University, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, New Haven, United States
Ben G. Armstrong, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
Ebi, Kristie L. Ebi, Kristie L., University of Washington, Seattle, Department of Global Health, Seattle, United States
Shilu Tong, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai, China

Document Type

Article

Rights

Available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial Share Alike 4.0 International Licence

Disciplines

1.5 EARTH AND RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES, Environmental sciences, Climatic research

Publication Details

PLOS Medicine

Volume 15, Issue 7, July 2018, Article number e1002629

Abstract

Background: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited. Methods and findings: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave–mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971–2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031–2080 compared with 1971–2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections. Conclusions: This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change. © 2018 Guo et al. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

DOI

10.1371/journal.pmed.1002629

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