Document Type
Article
Rights
Available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial Share Alike 4.0 International Licence
Disciplines
Business and Management.
Abstract
For system dynamics simulation (SD) models, an estimation of statistical distributions for uncertain parameters is crucial. These distributions could be used for testing models sensitivity, quality of policies, and/or estimating confidence intervals for these parameters. Assumptions related to normality, independence and constant variation are often misapplied in dynamic simulation. Bootstrapping holds a considerable theoretical advantage when used with non-Gaussian data for estimating empirical distributions for unknown parameters. Although it is a widely acceptable approach, it has had only limited use in system dynamics applications. This paper introduces an application of Direct Residual Bootstrapping (DRBS) for statistical inference in system dynamic model. DRBS has been applied successfully to ‘The Irish Elderly Patient Delayed Discharge’ dynamic model to estimate empirical distribution for some unknown parameters with a minimal computation effort. The computational results show that bootstrapping offers an efficient performance in cases of no availability of prior information of model parameters.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.21427/D7JR48
Recommended Citation
Mesabbah, M., Rashwan, W. & Arisha, A. (2014) An empirical estimation of statistical inferences for system dynamics model parameters, 2014 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC2014).
Funder
DIT - College of Business
Included in
Business Administration, Management, and Operations Commons, Management Sciences and Quantitative Methods Commons, Operations and Supply Chain Management Commons
Publication Details
Proceedings of the 2014 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC2014), pp. 686-697. IEEE Press.