Document Type
Article
Rights
This item is available under a Creative Commons License for non-commercial use only
Disciplines
Computer Sciences, Infectious diseases, Epidemiology
Abstract
In understanding the dynamics of the spread of an infectious disease, it is important to understand how a town’s place in a network of towns within a region will impact how the disease spreads to that town and from that town. In this article, we take a model for the spread of an infectious disease in a single town and scale it up to simulate a region containing multiple towns. The model is validated by looking at how adding additional towns and commuters influences the outbreak in a single town. We then look at how the centrality of a town within a network influences the outbreak. Our main finding is that the commuters coming into a town have a greater effect on whether an outbreak will spread to a town than the commuters going out. The findings on centrality of a town and how it influences an outbreak could potentially be used to help influence future policy and intervention strategies such as school closure policies
Recommended Citation
Hunter, E.; Mac Namee, B.; Kelleher, J.D. (2020). A Model for the Spread of Infectious Diseases in a Region. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health17, 3119. doi:10.3390/ijerph17093119
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17093119
Publication Details
Special Issue "Infectious Disease Modeling in the Era of Complex Data" in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health