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2.1 CIVIL ENGINEERING
The reliability of the structural performance of any given structure is affected by both in-service loading and material deterioration due to environmental attack. They must be evaluated at any given time in order to compute lifetime probability of failure. This paper presents an innovative methodology to derive the structure lifetime load effect due to existing traffic using a statistical tool known as Predictive Likelihood. Loss of resistance due to corrosion originated by chloride ingression is also taken into account. Finally the lifetime probability of failure is evaluated via the application of a time-discretization strategy.
Caprani, C., McNally, C., O'Brien, E., Bordallo-Ruiz, A.: The structural reliability of bridges subject to time-dependent deterioration. Proceedings of the 11th. Conference on Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering Computing, ed. B.H.V. Topping, Civil-Comp Press, Paper No.189, 16pp. Stirling, Scotland, 2007.