Document Type

Theses, Ph.D


Available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial Share Alike 4.0 International Licence


Civil engineering

Publication Details

Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), School of Civil and Structural Engineering, Technological University Dublin, May 2020.


The participation of wind energy in electricity markets and strategic bidding in the day-ahead market has been investigated with growing interest in recent years. However, markets adopting a single-price imbalance settlement where participants can increase their profits if they help to put the system back into balance have received very limited attention in the academic literature. In this thesis, new probabilistic models forecasting the short-term value of wind power are developed and their use in bidding in these types of markets is investigated. The proposed strategies are designed for participants who want to bid strategically in the day-ahead market to increase the value of the energy generated at a wind farm, where value is measured in terms of revenue and exposure to risk. Following an extensive analysis of the available market data, two alternative approaches are developed to generate day-ahead forecasts of the market quantities of relevance for the work. These forecasts are then combined with short-term predictions of wind power in a probabilistic framework. Bids are formulated to reflect the participant's risk profile, conditioned upon the uncertainty in future wind power generation and electricity market conditions. The methodology is applied to a case study where the participation of a real wind farm in the new Irish electricity market is simulated over a test period. The benefits of the proposed models are clearly demonstrated as the strategies successfully improve the value of wind power for the participant by increasing their revenue while reducing the exposure to risk. Moreover, the market quantity forecasts developed in this work prove to be more valuable than a wind power forecast of higher accuracy for a risk-seeking participant.



Technological University Dublin; European Union