Author ORCID Identifier

Document Type

Conference Paper


Available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial Share Alike 4.0 International Licence


Business and Management.

Publication Details

Logistics Research Network Conference 2021 - Cardiff University


Purpose Brexit introduced a range of new tariffs and non-tariff barriers that will significantly disrupt Irish beef exports, particularly to the UK market. Firms should be able to accurately anticipate the adverse effects of Brexit trade barriers on the flow of their products and change their practices accordingly. This research introduces a scenario planning solution based on a process simulation technology to investigate the implication of Brexit risks on Irish beef export performance. Scenarios implications on the transportation time and shelf-life of Irish meat exports to the UK market are investigated.

Research Approach An agent-based and discrete event simulation model based on a geographic information system (GIS) map were applied. The simulation model focuses on Roll-on/Roll-off (Ro/Ro) maritime transport connectivity between Ireland, the UK, and other EU member states. The agent-based modelling is used for communication between the main four model entities (products, trucks, vessels, and ports). On the other hand, discrete event modelling is applied for sequencing the procedures inside the different agents.

Findings and Originality The research outcomes suggest that beef supply chains and product flow between Ireland and the UK should not be interrupted post-Brexit. It is recommended that the Irish Government explore mitigation strategies for border check disruptions in this regard with EU26 and UK authorities. A lack of communication between the revenue authorities in Ireland and the UK will be a real challenge for the beef export business. It was also recommended that a robust direct shipping service to mainland Europe is essential to avoid the UK Land-bridge uncertainty.

Research Impact Using simulation to model transportation systems and investigate business decisions added a new perspective on how business analytics can inform the pre-disruption phase of building supply chain resilience. Using modelling and simulation in the context of geopolitical disruption and supply chain resilience has rarely been presented in the literature.

Practical Impact The research provided the Irish meat exporters and supply chain practitioners with a scenario mapping solution to anticipate Brexit implications and inform potential mitigation and responding strategies. The article has also highlighted the severe implications of geopolitical disruptions on supply chains.

Keywords Supply Chain Resilience, Modelling & Simulation, Post-Brexit Implications, Beef Supply Chain.



EU Commission