An Integrated Catchment-Coastal Modelling System for Real-Time Water Quality Forecasts

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Available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial Share Alike 4.0 International Licence

Publication Details

Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 61, pp 458-476.


This paper presents a new marine water quality forecasting system for real-time and short-term predictions. The forecasting system comprises an integrated catchment-coastal model and a database management system. The integrated model is validated in an Irish catchment-coastal system using hydrodynamic and water quality data. The forecasting system was then used to provide short-term and real-time forecasts of Escherichia coli (E. coli) and Intestinal Enterococci concentrations (IE) in the near-shore coastal waters of Bray, Ireland. Two hind-cast scenarios were simulated: 5F in which predictions were based on rainfall forecasts only; and I-5F where forecasts of 5F were improved by incorporating real-time data. Results indicate that predictions of E. coli of scenario I-5F are improved. Also predicted IE concentrations by Scenario 5F were comparably higher than the I-5F predictions, but due to the wide scatter of observed IE concentrations, the superiority of one scenario over the second could not be definitively determined.



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